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PLANCHE 01 — HOOK · REF: HD-EXP-2026 HARD DISCOUNT EXPOSURE INDEX
EU Hard Discount Exposure Intelligence · H1 2026
European hard discount is rewriting margin math.
Here's who's most exposed.
Lidl and Aldi now hold 23.4% combined EU grocery share — up
2.3pp YoY. In 7 markets, hard
discount already commands >25% share. 19,735 stores. 561 added in 2025 alone.
22 mainstream retailers ranked by exposure. Sources cited.
23.4%LIDL + ALDI COMBINED EU SHARE
+2.3ppYOY SHARE GAIN 2024–2026
7EU MARKETS ABOVE 25% DISCOUNT SHARE
24%AVG PRICE GAP VS MAINSTREAM
HD-EXP-2026 Hard Discount Exposure Index · H1 2026 data · Sources: Kantar Worldpanel, NielsenIQ, IRI, Lidl/Aldi Annual Reports 2025, McKinsey
TOP 5 MOST-EXPOSED MAINSTREAM RETAILERS — H1 2026Ranks 1–5 of 22 · by Exposure Score
#1
Sainsbury's
UK 🇬🇧
Aldi/Lidl now cover 71% of Sainsbury's store catchment zones; basket size gap widening at £8.40 per trip
-1.8pp
SHARE LOST YOY
71%
STORE OVERLAP
88
EXPOSURE
#2
Carrefour
FR 🇫🇷
Lidl France added 41 stores in 2025; Carrefour hypermarket format most exposed to discount proximity
-1.4pp
SHARE LOST YOY
63%
STORE OVERLAP
82
EXPOSURE
#3
Tesco
UK 🇬🇧
Clubcard pricing partially offsets discount threat; Express convenience format less overlap than superstores
-1.1pp
SHARE LOST YOY
68%
STORE OVERLAP
79
EXPOSURE
#4
Casino Group
FR 🇫🇷
Post-restructuring estate concentrated in discount-dense Île-de-France catchments; PL gap at 31pp
-2.1pp
SHARE LOST YOY
58%
STORE OVERLAP
76
EXPOSURE
#5
Morrisons
UK 🇬🇧
Highest store overlap of UK Big Four; northern England estate directly in Aldi expansion corridor
-2.3pp
SHARE LOST YOY
74%
STORE OVERLAP
73
EXPOSURE
Exposure Score (0–100) = composite of market share loss rate, geographic store overlap, price gap vs Lidl/Aldi, and private-label share gap.
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel basket data, NielsenIQ, retailer annual reports 2025, company trading statements H1 2026.
PLANCHE 03 — RETAILER RANKING 6–22 · MEMBERS ONLY
RETAILERS 6–22 — FULL EXPOSURE RANKING + COMMENTARY17 retailers locked
#
Retailer
Country
Discount Share
Share Δ YoY
Exposure
#6
REWE Group
DE 🇩🇪
31.2%
-0.9pp
71
#7
Edeka Zentrale
DE 🇩🇪
31.2%
-0.7pp
68
#8
Albert Heijn
NL 🇳🇱
19.8%
-0.6pp
65
#9
Ahold Delhaize
NL 🇳🇱
19.8%
-0.5pp
62
#10
Intermarché
FR 🇫🇷
22.1%
-0.8pp
61
#11
Leclerc
FR 🇫🇷
22.1%
-0.3pp
58
#12
Asda
UK 🇬🇧
28.4%
-1.9pp
57
#13
Colruyt
BE 🇧🇪
26.3%
-0.7pp
54
#14
Coop (CH)
CH 🇨🇭
33.6%
-0.4pp
52
#15
Auchan
FR 🇫🇷
22.1%
-1.2pp
51
#16
Coop (IT)
IT 🇮🇹
21.4%
-0.6pp
48
#17
Eroski
ES 🇪🇸
25.8%
-0.8pp
46
#18
Biedronka
PL 🇵🇱
18.9%
-0.4pp
44
#19
Penny Market
DE 🇩🇪
31.2%
-0.2pp
42
#20
Jumbo
NL 🇳🇱
19.8%
-0.3pp
40
#21
Migros
CH 🇨🇭
33.6%
-0.5pp
38
#22
Mercadona
ES 🇪🇸
25.8%
-0.3pp
35
🔒
Ranks 6–22 locked · full analyst commentary included
Complete 22-retailer hard discount exposure ranking with store-overlap detail,
price gap analysis, private-label deficit scores, and category-level vulnerability
signals. Includes which retailers are quietly gaining and which are in structural decline.
PLANCHE 04 — COUNTRY DISCOUNT PENETRATION HEATMAP · MEMBERS ONLY
HARD DISCOUNT PENETRATION BY MARKET — 10 EU COUNTRIES10 markets · gated
🇩🇪
Germany
31.2%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+0.8pp YoY
Aldi Nord, Aldi Süd, Lidl, Penny
🇨🇭
Switzerland
33.6%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+0.6pp YoY
Lidl, Aldi Suisse
🇧🇪
Belgium
26.3%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+1.1pp YoY
Lidl, Aldi
🇬🇧
UK
28.4%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+1.4pp YoY
Aldi UK, Lidl GB
🇦🇹
Austria
27.1%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+0.9pp YoY
Hofer (Aldi), Lidl
🇳🇱
Netherlands
19.8%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+1.2pp YoY
Aldi, Lidl
🇪🇸
Spain
25.8%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+1.6pp YoY
Lidl, Aldi
🇫🇷
France
22.1%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+1.3pp YoY
Lidl, Aldi, Leader Price
🇵🇱
Poland
18.9%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+2.1pp YoY
Lidl, Aldi
🇮🇹
Italy
21.4%
HARD DISCOUNT SHARE
+1.7pp YoY
Lidl, Eurospin, In's Mercato
🔒
Country heatmap locked · 10 EU markets
Full market-by-market hard discount penetration — share %, YoY delta,
leading banners, store count targets through 2027, and which formats
are under most pressure in each geography.
PLANCHE 05 — METHODOLOGY + RELATED INTELLIGENCE · HD-EXP-2026
METHODOLOGY — 4-AXIS EXPOSURE SCORING
01Market Share Loss Rate — rolling 24-month basket-panel share change in the retailer's primary operating market vs hard discount banners. Weight: 35%.
02Geographic Store Overlap — % of the retailer's store estate within 3km of a Lidl or Aldi. Correlates with basket diversion. Weight: 30%.
03Price Gap — comparable basket price delta vs nearest Lidl/Aldi equivalent. Wider gap = higher vulnerability. Weight: 20%.
04Private-Label Share Deficit — gap between own-brand penetration and hard discount benchmark (68%+). Retailers with <30% own-brand are most exposed. Weight: 15%.
SOURCES — EU HARD DISCOUNT EXPOSURE INDEX (HD-EXP-2026)
Kantar Worldpanel 2025/H1 2026 — Primary source for consumer panel basket penetration and hard discount share by market
NielsenIQ EU Discount Monitor — Store count, share, and YoY tracking across DE, UK, FR, NL, ES, IT, BE, PL, AT, CH
IRI European Grocery Intelligence — Price gap analysis, private-label displacement, and category-level data 2025–H1 2026
Lidl International Annual Report 2025 — Store count targets, market entry pipeline, and capex by region
Aldi Group Annual Report 2025 — Nord + Süd combined EU estate data, trading update, private-label SKU depth
McKinsey European Grocery 2025 — FMCG margin compression estimates and discount-driven category exposure framework
AISLE INTELLIGENCE — FOUNDING OFFER
See the full 22-retailer exposure ranking, country heatmap, and which retailers are in structural decline.
The Hard Discount Exposure Index is one layer of a broader intelligence service tracking
every strategic shift in the EUR 2.4T European grocery market — monthly memos,
M&A teardowns, retailer deep dives, store tours. Strategy teams use it to
map competitive exposure before planning season.